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Thursday, 12 March 2015

Ukraine War Update - 12 March 2015

Thursday, March 12, 2015  8:00 AM PDT
OSCE: Heavy weapons and small arms still used
   KIEV, March 12 (Ukrinform). --- The OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) to Ukraine has registered a violation of the cease-fire with the use of heavy weapons and small arms in the area of the Donetsk airport and village Shyrokyne.
Deputy chief monitor of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine Alexander Hug has announced this at a briefing in Kiev on Thursday, an Ukrinform correspondent reports.
"Despite the overall decrease in the number of serious violations of the ceasefire, heavy weapons and small arms are still used in and around the Donetsk airport, as well as in the south - in and around village Shyrokyne, to the east of Mariupol," Hug said.
Thursday, March 12, 2015  7:24 AM PDT
Militants carry out 49 attacks using artillery and mortars
   KIEV, March 12 (Ukrinform). --- Over the past day, Russian-backed militants have fired at the positions of ATO forces 49 times, including shelling with artillery six times and 17 times with mortars.
   Acting Spokesperson for the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Vladyslav Selezniov said this at a briefing in Kiev on Thursday, an Ukrinform correspondent reported.
   "During the day, 49 attacks on the positions of ATO forces were observed. Militants used artillery six times and 17 times they used mortars," Selezniov said.
   He said that in the direction of Luhansk there were observed shelling near the settlements of Sokolnyky and Novotoshkivske three times and military clash near the settlement of Dovge.
   The tensest situation was observed in the Donetsk direction, where militants violated the ceasefire 26 times. Gunmen fired at the Ukrainian positions located in the settlements of Avdiyivka, Opytne, Vodiane, Pisky, and near the Dutov mine, he said.
   In the Artemivsk direction there were 11 attacks on the positions of ATO forces located near the settlements of Komyshevaha, Luhanske and Lozove.
   In the Mariupol direction militants carried out shelling eight times. The settlement of Shyrokyne, where the ATO forces continue to deter aggression, remains the hottest spot.
Thursday, March 12, 2015  6:36 AM PDT
No casualties reported in Donbas in past 24 hours
   KIEV, March 12 (Ukrinform). --- Over the past day no Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and none have been injured in the area of the anti-terrorist operation in Donbas.
   Spokesman for the anti-terrorist operation in eastern Ukraine Andriy Lysenko said this at a briefing in Kiev on Thursday, an Ukrinform correspondent reported.
   "During the last day no Ukrainian servicemen have been killed and no have been injured as a result of military clashes," Lysenko said.
Thursday, March 12, 2015  6:36 AM PDT
Visegrad Group, Nordic-Baltic Eight to discuss Ukraine
   KIEV, March 12 (Ukrinform). --- The foreign ministers of the Visegrad Group and the Nordic-Baltic Eight are to hold a meeting on topical issues in Slovakia. Ukraine's foreign minister Pavlo Klimkin has also been invited to the meeting, an Ukrinform correspondent has learnt from the Foreign Ministry of the Slovak Republic.
   "The third annual meeting in the format of foreign ministers of the Visegrad Group (V4) and the Nordic-Baltic Eight (NB8) will be held in the region of the High Tatras on March 12-13. The event is organized within the framework of the Slovak presidency of the Visegrad Group," the Slovak Foreign Ministry informs.
   The ministers will discuss topical foreign and security policy issues, including energy security. The priority issues will be the situation in Ukraine, relations with Russia, preparations for the summit of "Eastern Partnership" in Riga on May 21-22.
Thursday, March 12, 2015  2:38 AM PDT
Terrorists shelled Ukrainian army positions with artillery which was to be withdrawn – ATO speaker
   (Censor.NET) --- The terrorists use artillery, which, according to assurances of the militants’ leaders has been withdrawn from the demarcation line.
   Instead of withdrawing heavy weapons from the line of demarcation, the terrorists are actively employing it. There were more attacks last night compared to previous ones - 28 in total, including artillery shelling.
   This was announced at a briefing of the ATO HQ representative Anatolii Stelmakh, Censor.NET reports citing Channel 5.
   "The Donetsk direction remains the hottest spot. Here the bandits used 152-mm artillery systems to attack Avdiivka. The artillery also shelled the villages of Pisky and Vodiane. Small arms were used [by the militants] to attack Shyrokyne at the Mariupol direction, and a sniper was sweeping our positions until 8 p.m., March 11. The ATO forces open fire only in response [to the attacks] and continue equipping defensive positions," Stelmakh said.
   "This is further evidence that the statement of the militant leaders that the gang formations withdrew all the heavy weapons in accordance with the Minsk agreements is not true. Mortar and grenade launchers were also used to shell Pisky, Avdiivka, Opytne, and Vodiane," Stelmakh concluded.
Thursday, March 12, 2015  1:48 AM PDT
Another explosion occured in Odesa near Samopomich party office.

   (Censor.NET) --- An explosion occurred in the Admiral business center in Odesa at around 12:40 a.m.
   This is stated by the press service of the Odesa region police, Censor.NET reports citing Liga.
   An explosive device was mounted at the front door of the Samopomich political party's office. The blast had damaged the office and windows of the adjacent premises of the business center. No casualties were reported.



   A police investigative team is working at the scene.
 
Thursday, March 12, 2015  1:13 AM PDT
Number of terrorist forces reaches 33,000 people with about 80% being Russian mercenaries - Tymchuk
   (Censor.NET) --- The number of Russian-terrorist forces in the Donbas reaches about 30,000-33,000 people.
   This is stated by Dmytro Tymchuk citing Information Resistance data on his Facebook page, Censor.NET reports.
   "Almost two army corps of Russian-terrorist troops (about 30,000-33,000 people) are currently deployed under a single centralized command of the DPR and LPR. Of these, only 15-20% are Ukrainian citizens, and the rest are Russian mercenaries," he wrote.
   Tymchuk also noted that the leadership of the terrorist organizations continues to mobilize: "So-called mobilization lists of employees are being compiled at the enterprises and mines in the occupied territories, under the pretext of preparation for the 'offensive Ukrainian troops.' "
   "After a series of conflicts and substantial losses in personnel as a result of "cleansing", leaders of the so-called "Cossacks" forces in the occupied territory of the Luhansk region agreed to the LPR leaders' terms regarding the command of this terrorist organization. It was decided that "Cossack" formations will join the "LPR armed forces" as a separate military branch," he added.
Wednesday, March 11, 2015  16:42 PDT
News Analysis: The Plot To Seize Crimea
   (RFE/RL) --- In early 2014, the world was caught off guard by one event after another in a crisis that culminated with Russia's annexation of the Ukrainian Black Sea peninsula of Crimea.
   Moscow also claimed to be caught up in events beyond its control. 
   On March 13, just eight days before the annexation, Russian President Vladimir Putin told a meeting in Moscow that "we cannot ignore the situation evolving around Ukraine, Crimea." 
   "I want to emphasize that this crisis is not of our making," Putin said. "Nevertheless, one way or another we are being dragged into it." A bit earlier, on March 4, Putin told journalists that the idea of annexing Crimea "is not being considered."
   But a year later, new revelations, including disclosures from Putin himself, are reshaping this part of the Kremlin's Crimea narrative and other key aspects as well. 
   A new documentary that is to be aired by Russian state television in the coming days is being teased with clips of Putin claiming he made the decision to annex Crimea in the early morning hours of February 23.
   "When we were parting, I told all my colleagues, 'we are forced to begin the work to bring Crimea back into Russia,'" a confident-looking Putin says in the promotional clip.
   Saying "begin the work," Putin seems to be implying that no preparation had been made for this contingency. However, other evidence suggests that detailed plans had been drawn up and that Putin's order to "begin the work" more likely meant to start the process of implementing those plans.
   Russian security analyst Andrei Soldatov told The Moscow Times in March 2014: "The Kremlin always has several plans on various issues that may not be in use for years. But then when some trigger appears, Putin asks to put one of the plans into action. So the Crimea operation may have been prepared long ago, but the decision on it was made very quickly."
   The medals that the Russian military awarded to service personnel -- which Putin initially denied were involved in the Crimea annexation at all -- says the operation "for the return of Crimea" began on February 20, 2014. Putin advisor Vladislav Surkov was in Crimea the week of February 14, and the first pro-Russian demonstrations on the peninsula materialized on February 21.
Reviving The Russian Empire
   In addition to the documentary, the liberal newspaper Novaya Gazeta has published a strategy memo on Ukraine that was purportedly drafted under the auspices of Russian oligarch Konstantin Malofeyev and discussed in the Kremlin in February 2014, before Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych fled from Kiev. The newspaper vouches for the document's authenticity, although Malofeyev denies any connection and has threatened to sue.
   Also, in January, Russian researcher Aleksandr Sytin published an insider account of the workings of the Russian Institute for Strategic Research (RISI), an influential presidential think tank that provides strategy memos to the Kremlin. 
   Sytin argues that, since 2009, RISI has become increasingly interested in the revival of the Russian empire and bolstering the role of the Russian Orthodox Church. According to Sytin, RISI joined forces with Malofeyev and other oligarchs in November 2013 to appeal to Putin to adopt a constitutional amendment on the status of Orthodoxy.
   RISI's leadership discounted the independence of all the former Soviet states and argued that their sovereignty "does not deserve serious attention." 
   "The overwhelming majority of Ukrainians remember our common history and the Great Patriotic War, and dream of the rebirth of a common Imperial/Soviet state structure," ran RISI's analytical take, according to Sytin. He says the think tank was arguing throughout 2013 that Western security agencies were undermining Russian interests in Ukraine and that it was essential to bring Crimea into the Russian Federation.
   The purported Malofeyev strategy document also indicates that Russia was developing plans for pursuing economic and geopolitical goals in Ukraine. The document advocates the incorporation into Russia of Crimea and large parts of eastern Ukraine, particularly Kharkiv Oblast. It argues that if Russia loses control over the natural-gas transport network in Ukraine, it would bring "enormous harm to the economy of our country."
   "Russia's participation in the highly likely disintegration of the Ukrainian state will not only give new impetus to the Kremlin's integration projects but will also enable our country to preserve, as mentioned earlier, control over the gas-transport system of Ukraine," the paper states. "At the same time, it will fundamentally change the geopolitical layout of central and eastern Europe, returning to Russia one of its main roles."
Fomenting Tensions
   The document also cites the need to maintain the integrity of Russia's military-industrial complex, some of which is located in eastern Ukraine, in order to "accelerate rearmament." It also cites the desirability of reducing Russia's dependence on Central Asia migrant workers by replacing them with Slavs from Ukraine as a reason to incorporate eastern Ukraine and Crimea into Russia.
   The authors of the document do not bring forward the need to protect ethnic Russians as a motive for aggression in Ukraine. Instead, it advocates fomenting tensions and creating pro-Russian groups and demonstrations complaining of persecution. Such movements should organize referendums to "give this process 'political legitimacy' and 'moral justification,'" the document says.
   Political analyst Andrei Piontkovsky says Putin's decision to annex Crimea was part of a larger strategy in response to the political crisis in Ukraine.
   "[Putin's] goal was to block the European vector of Ukrainian development," Piontkovsky told Voice of America on March 10. "He thought he achieved the goal by bullying and bribing Yanukovych in November 2013…. But everything changed with the anticriminal Maidan revolution, which culminated with the events of February 20-23. Then he understood that it was necessary to destroy the Ukrainian state."
   "That is, the goal of annexing Crimea was not an end in itself," Piontkovsky adds, "but the most effective tool for weakening and, in the long run, destroying the Ukrainian state."

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