(REUTERS) --- The Kremlin has announced
that Russia
will hugely boost its naval operations in 2015.
But that's an empty
promise — or threat, if you will. In fact, the Russian fleet is on the edge of
a precipitous decline in ship numbers and combat power, owing to huge
industrial shortfalls that have been decades in the making.
"As for
missions of Russian naval ships, there will be 50 percent more of them than in
2013," Gen. Valery Gerasimov, chief of the Russian general staff, told a
TV audience in December.
But Gerasimov's vow
belies a bleak future for the Russian navy. Even if the fleet is busier in 2015
than it was in 2013, in coming years it will have fewer and fewer ships to be
busy with — and those that remain will be progressively smaller and weaker than
rival vessels.
Today the Russian
navy possesses around 270 warships including surface combatants, amphibious
ships, submarines, and auxiliaries.
On paper, that is.
But that count includes many ships that are inactive and in poor material
condition plus scores of small patrol vessels with very limited combat
capability.
Of the 270 ships,
just 125 or so are in a working state. And of those 125, only around 45 are
oceangoing surface warships or submarines that are in good shape and
deployable.
All the above
figures come from Dr. Dmitry Gorenburg of the Davis
Center for Russian and Eurasian
Studies at Harvard
University .
By comparison, the
U.S. Navy possesses some 290 warships. Pretty much all of them are
well-maintained, deployable, oceangoing vessels.
All the same, a
force of almost 50 large warships is no insignificant thing, and outguns the
fleets of all but the most powerful countries. The problem, according to
Gorenburg, is that today's Russian navy is old … and won't last much longer.
"The Russian
navy is still primarily a Soviet legacy force," Gorenburg writes.
"There are relatively few new warships in service at present and the ones
that have been commissioned in recent years are all relatively small. In terms
of large surface units, the navy only operates what it was able to save during
the years when it received virtually no funding."
Many, if not most,
of the Soviet-vintage ships will decommission in the next few years as they
became too old to sail safely and economically.
Under
President Vladimir Putin's regime, the Kremlin has laid plans to rebuild
the fleet. But that's easier said than done when the vessels most badly in need
of replacement are also the most difficult to build — heavy cruisers, powerful
destroyers, and Admiral Kuznetsov, Russia's sole aircraft carrier, which is
barely seaworthy after nearly three decades in service.
"Russia 's
shipbuilding industry is not in good shape," Gorenburg explains. He
estimates that the industry could build somewhere between half and 70 percent
of the vessels Moscow
wants by 2020. "The earliest that Russia could build a new aircraft
carrier is 2027, while new destroyers are still on drawing board, with the
first unlikely to be commissioned for 10 years."
And it doesn't help
that Russia has invaded and
alienated Ukraine ,
which built Admiral Kuznetsov and until recently supplied Russian shipyards
with many of the heavy components they need to complete new warships.
Moscow tried to
inject new hardware and expertise into its rusting shipbuilding industry by
acquiring two new Mistral-class amphibious assault ships from France — and also
licensing the design for possible continued construction of the class in
Russian yards.
But Paris suspended the deal last year after Russian troops
annexed Ukraine 's Crimea
region and also infiltrated eastern Ukraine to aid pro-Russian
separatists.
"Whereas the
Soviet navy focused on building ships designed to take on carrier groups,"
Gorenburg concludes, "the new Russian navy will be primarily focused on
defending against smaller adversaries closer to home."
So the Russian
fleet's 50-percent-more-hectic 2015 could be one of its last busy years for a
good long time — at least in any meaningful sense of the word "busy."
More and more, Moscow 's
navy will have to stay home.
Meanwhile, the U.S. and
Chinese navies continue to grow and modernize. The American fleet is working
hard to expand to around 306 large ships by the 2020s. And Washington is already deploying more of its
vessels overseas.
(My view on this article is that it’s more wishful thinking but you can
decide).
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