Ukraine War Update - 3 May 2015

Sunday, May 3, 2015  4:49 AM PDT

One Ukrainian soldier killed and six wounded over the past day - ATO speaker

   (Censor.NET) --- One soldier was killed and six were wounded in the course of the anti-terrorist operation (ATO) on May 2.

   This was stated by ATO speaker Andrii Lysenko during a briefing, Censor.NET reports citing Ukrainian News.

   "Over the past day as a result of provocations and hostilities one Ukrainian soldier was killed and another six were wounded," he said.

   In the past 24 hours the militants used Grad multiple rocket launchers one time.

   Fighting continues near the Donetsk airport and Shyrokyne.

   In addition, the Ukrainian military was able to repel the assault on the ATO strong point near Mariinka of the Donetsk region.

   Earlier, it was reported that eight servicemen were wounded in the ATO on May 1.

Sunday, May 3, 2015  4:12 AM PDT

Fighting in Shyrokyne continues. Donbas battalion soldier killed by shrapnel.

   (Censor.NET) --- Non-stop fighting has continued in Shyrokyne over the past two days. Russian occupants use heavy 120 mm mortars, automatic grenade launchers, small arms, and sniper rifles.

   Donbas battalion is repelling the enemy, Censor.NET reports citing the battalion's official page on Facebook.

   The reports states: "During the operation Donbas battalion soldier Ivan Sotnyk, a resident of Lutsk, was killed. We cherish the memory of the Hero!

   "Another soldier of the battalion, call-sign Tor was wounded. He received medical treatment, a shrapnel was removed, he is currently in a good condition," the report says.

Sunday, May 3, 2015  2:21 AM PDT

Paratroopers unblocked Right Sector base. All conflicts have been exhausted - Corps Commander

   (Censor.NET) --- Paratroopers of the 25th and 95th brigades of the armed forces of Ukraine unblocked the base of the Right Sector Volunteer Corps.

   This is reported by Censor.NET citing the press service of the Right Sector.

   "According to Corps Commander Andrii Stempytskyi, paratroopers of the 25th and 95th brigades of the armed forces of Ukraine unblocked the base of the Volunteer Corps. All the conflicts have been exhausted," the statement reads.

   Earlier, Defense Minister Stepan Poltorak stated that there would be no granting of special authority to the units of the Right Sector upon acceding to the armed forces of Ukraine

Sunday, May 3, 2015  1:39 AM PDT

Ukrainian soldiers repulsed the attack of terrorists in the area of Mariinka - ATO press center

   (Censor.NET) --- From 6 p.m. to midnight on May 2, the situation in the area of the anti-terrorist operation remained tense.

   This is reported by Censor.NET citing the press center of the ATO.

   "Around midnight, a strong point of our fighters near Mariinka engaged into a firefight with a reconnaissance and sabotage group. The criminals fired from automatic grenade launchers and small arms. The Ukrainian troops effectively repelled the attack and drove the criminals away," the headquarters informed.

   It is noted that in the Luhansk region the gangs fired from automatic grenade launchers and small arms on the position of Ukrainian troops near Shchastia d Zolote-4.

   During the said period units of the armed forces of Ukraine also recorded two enemy UAV flights not far from Shyrokyne and Opytne.

Saturday, May 2, 2015  8:37 AM PDT

US experts on Russia fear escalation over Ukraine

US now sees Russia directing Ukraine's rebels

The United States now sees the Ukrainian rebels as a Russian force.

   WASHINGTON (Associated Press) — U.S. experts on Russia see a growing danger the crisis in Ukraine that has already taken thousands of lives could explode, although the latest cease-fire agreement has partially held.

   U.S. and Western European moves to isolate Russia and damage its economy for its seizure of the Crimean peninsula and support of separatists in eastern Ukraine against the Western-backed central government have not forced President Vladimir Putin to back down.

   The State Department says Russia is beefing up its troops and weapons along the Ukrainian border. Meanwhile, the U.S. has dispatched 300 American military trainers to work with the Ukraine army, and other NATO members are adding hundreds more.

   Experts say that's a fuse of a much wider conflict waiting to be lit after a year of battle that the U.N. says has taken at least 6,100 lives.

   Andrew Weiss, Russia expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said an egregious action by Russian forces in eastern Ukraine or an incident between U.S. and Russian forces could cause an escalation. He said a recent near-collision of U.S. and Russian military jets over the Baltics highlighted the risk.

   "So there's a lot of volatility here that's embedded in the crisis," Weiss said. "So I'm thinking the current lull just doesn't look sustainable. And it's only a matter of time before something triggers a new escalatory spiral."

   Fighting in eastern Ukraine has ebbed substantially since the signing of a February cease-fire deal, but sporadic clashes still break out along the 280-mile front line separating government and rebel forces. U.S. Gen. Philip Breedlove, commander of NATO forces in Europe, told a congressional hearing Thursday that it appears Russian forces have used the lull in fighting to reposition for another offensive.

   Western economic sanctions have taken their toll on the Russian economy that President Barack Obama said in his State of the Union address in January "was in tatters." The impact of those economic woes was felt most by average Russians.

   Russia, however, has won some economic breathing space as its currency, the ruble, regained ground from panic-level lows at the end of last year. Oil prices — for the time — have ended a precipitous decline and the flow of capital out of the country has slowed. The latest poll by the independent Levada agency showed Putin's approval rating was an overwhelming 86 percent in April.

   But there are signs that Russia could be headed for deeper economic problems. This year's first-quarter gross domestic product is off 2 percent and a fairly deep recession still is forecast for the next two to three years. Capital outflow this year is projected at $90 billion to $100 billion, which is much better than 2014's disaster, but that projection is still about 50 percent higher than the outflow of 2013. And oil prices, while stabilizing, are down about 50 percent, which cuts deeply into Russian government income.

   "You've seen some bad news about the Russian economy," Weiss said, "but nothing that's catastrophic or dire. None of what has been put on the table so far (in terms of sanctions) has had an effect on what Putin will do or not do in Ukraine tomorrow."

   As for Ukraine itself, Weiss warns that the state is fragile, and it will be difficult for President Petro Poroshenko to deliver on ambitions for significant economic reform and changes in the political system that has been dominated by a corrupt Ukrainian elite for most of the past 25 years.

   So what is the way out of the standoff?

   "At the moment all the signs are bad," said Stephen Cohen, a Russia expert and professor emeritus at Princeton and New York University.

   Cohen is a longtime and vocal critic of American policy toward Russia. He, like Putin, believes U.S. policy has been provocative ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, starting with the expansion of NATO into former Soviet republics and Soviet satellite nations in Eastern and Central Europe.

Washington is determined that the new Western-leaning Ukraine government be freed of Moscow's orbit. Putin has declared it must not.

   "Putin has said from the beginning what he wants is enough home-rule in the southeastern territory," Cohen said of the industrial and coal-producing region that is heavily populated with ethnic Russians.

   Putin has said he's never going to desert the people in eastern Ukraine. And he wants a guarantee that Ukraine never joins the NATO alliance.

Who's going to blink?