KYBARTAI, Lithuania (Reuters) --- Geopolitics
plague Lithuanians at this frozen Russian border post, where a return trip by
car can mean 48 hours of queuing. It is a reminder for some of why the former
Soviet republic will cement its move to the West by joining the euro zone next
month.
Tensions with Moscow have simmered ever since Lithuania
became the first republic to declare independence from the Soviet
Union in 1990, although only 6 percent of the population are
Russian speakers, far fewer than in its Baltic neighbours.
On Jan. 1, it will
be the last of the Baltic states to join the currency bloc, hoping like Estonia and Latvia
for more investment and lower borrowing costs to spur one of Europe’s
poorest but fastest-growing economies.
All three have felt
the blowback from East-West tension over Russia's
encroachment into Ukraine
this year in the form of Russian sanctions and military grandstanding on their
borders.
When Lithuanian
President Dalia Grybauskaite announced military aid for Ukraine last month, accusing Moscow
of being a "terrorist country", Russia
launched a go-slow on the border with its Kaliningrad
enclave – home to Russia's Baltic sea fleet and, most Lithuanians suspect, tactical
nuclear weapons.
The number of
private Lithuanian cars crossing over plunged tenfold. "Before it only
took a couple of hours," said unemployed Lionius Medelis, one of just
three drivers huddled in the cold in the hope of buying cheap gasoline in Kaliningrad. "It's
terrible what's happening here."
The move to the
euro coincides with steps towards greater energy independence and requests for
more NATO troops in Lithuania,
marking a new shift away from Moscow.
But half those polled in this state of three million do not welcome the euro.
"It is all a
horror movie," elderly Laima Krecikiene said outside a supermarket by the
border. "Don't you understand? Can you imagine how little money people in
the villages have? Just look at the prices, they shot up in anticipation of the
euro."
Market reforms and
wider economic crisis have been tough for Lithuanians, driving many to
emigrate. But few oppose its shift towards the West.
Russia’s move into Ukraine has awoken fears the
Baltics could be next. NATO has scrambled its jets over 150 times this year
after Russian sorties, three times more than last year. Moscow
held surprise military exercises in Kaliningrad
in December with 9,000 troops and 55 ships.
Russian sanctions
have hit Lithuania's
transport sector, which employs around 100,000, as well as its dairy industry.
While the aim may
be to bring the country back into Moscow's
orbit, analysts say it is having the opposite effect, focusing business minds
on the west and emerging markets like Asia.
"I think
Russians are trying to educate us how to behave," said Gitanas Nauseda,
chief economist as SEB bank in Lithuania.
"But among executives the mentality of having Russia in your strategic plan is
disappearing."
VOCAL
With Russia still accounting for some 20 percent of
exports compared with 60 percent going elsewhere in the European Union, the
government, which has been among the most vocal in Europe in denouncing Russia,
says there is some way to go.
Prime Minister
Algirdas Butkevicius said some businesses still did not appreciate the risks of
dealing with Russia.
"It's better
to work with less risky markets, make use of having a stable currency like the
euro in Lithuania, have lower profits but long-term stability in
business," he told Reuters.
A big step came in
October when "Independence", a
floating liquefied natural gas import terminal, arrived under heavy guard in Lithuania, marking the end of the Baltic state's
reliance on Russian gas by allowing it to import from countries like Norway as well.
While a Russian
crisis could upset forecasts, the central bank says euro zone membership could
add 1.3 percent to GDP in the long term.
The economy is
expected to grow 2.9 percent this year. Massive public spending cuts coupled
with economic crisis saw Lithuanian GDP shrink by 15 percent in 2009, a drop
that took until 2014 to recover. Around a tenth of the population has
emigrated, half since the crisis.
Now Lithuania seems
healthier than many EU economies, but central bank head Vitas Vasiliauskas said
it could not relax. "The euro gives you a lot of opportunities. At the
same time you must move forward with reforms," he said in an interview.
Deeper problems
include creaking education and health systems and the brain drain, and even
businesspeople are skeptical about the benefits of joining the euro.
Visvaldas
Matijosaitis, CEO of Viciunai Group, producer of frozen products that exports
to 56 countries and employs 7,500 people, complained of a shortage of skilled
labor - his company is forced to bus in workers from 100 km (60 miles) away.
"Productivity
is not what it is in the West," Matijosaitis said, as lines of women
filleted fish by hand nearby. "A lot of investment would be needed to raise
productivity."
Asked if the euro
would help, he did not hesitate.
"It changes
nothing," he said.