(REUTERS)
--- Global nations have been urged
to prepare or at least try to put some sense into both NATO and Russia as a
report published on Monday suggest it will just be a matter of time before
continued provocations escalate into a potential war.
A report by the London-based
thinktank titled 'Dangerous Brinkmanship by the European Leadership Network'
revealed there have been at least 40 dangerous or sensitive incidents that
occurred in just the past eight months alone between Russia and NATO
countries, as well as their partners in Sweden and Finland, that almost
triggered military hostilities between both.
The 40 incidents
were described as "unusual" because the incidents showed
violations of national airspace, emergency air-defense scrambles, narrowly
avoided mid-air collisions, close encounters at sea, simulated attack runs and
other dangerous actions on a regular basis over a wide area. It's a "highly
disturbing picture," the report said.
The report
described 11 serious incidents of a more aggressive or unusually provocative
nature, "bringing a higher level risk of escalation." Such incidents
reportedly involved a harassment of reconnaissance planes, close over-flights
over warships and Russian "mock bombing raid" missions. There were
also dangerous incidents where Russian planes did not turn on its transponders.
Transponders emit signals to other aircraft telling them of the other's
presence. It wasn't stated if the Russians purposely turned off their
transponders or not.
Thomas Frear,
Lukasz Kulesa and Ian Kearns, the report's authors, said they believed the 40
incidents occurred because Russia
is playing a "dangerous game of brinkmanship." However, such display
of flare has the strong "potential for unintended escalation in what is
now the most serious security crisis in Europe
since the cold war." In October alone, NATO disclosed it had intercepted
over 100 Russian aircraft, which it said had been three times over compared in
2013.
"The increased
number and gravity of incidents described points to a disturbing dynamic,"
the report said. "The mix of beefed-up military postures along the
NATO-Russia border, more aggressive Russian activities and the readiness of
western forces to show resolve in the face of the challenge is ripe with
potential for escalation."
Des Browne, former
UK Defence Secretary, had earlier told Sky News he believed Russia is doing
his arsenal display to test the cooperation and readiness of the NATO-member
nations. He said Russia
should be reminded that the costs and risks associated with war will be
incurred by all parties involved.
"History has
shown that, quite often, serious conflicts escalating into wars start off with
relatively small incidents which grow very quickly," he said.
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