Moldova
East Or West? Divided
Moldova 's
Tense Election Season Comes Down To The Wire
CHISINAU(RFE/RL) --- The chances that Moldova 's
November 30 legislative elections could end up provoking legal challenges and
even protests keep going up.
The Appeals Court
disqualified the pro-Russian Patria (Homeland) party on November 27, a day
after the country's Central Election Commission asked for the party to be
thrown out of the race, claiming it had illegally used "foreign
funds" to finance its campaign. The commission has frozen the party's
accounts.
The decision can
still be appealed in the Supreme Court by the evening of November 28.
A November 26 video
has also appeared on a Moldovan site that purported to include audio of Patria
party head Renato Usatii admitting that he was being controlled by Russia 's
Federal Security Service (FSB).
Moldovan security
forces detained five people who are suspected of planning post election
violence. Police claimed they confiscated pistols, grenade launchers, and
undisclosed sums of money. They said as many as 15 people who are allegedly
members of an outlawed pro-Russian organization were involved in the plot.
Even before these
developments, Moldova 's
pro-European ruling coalition and outside observers were warning of the
possibility of post election demonstrations.
A recent report by
the Center for Eastern Studies in Warsaw
said, "in the event of the pro-Russian forces losing, we may primarily
expect the election results to be contested, as well as mass demonstrations or
even lengthy protests both in Chisinau and in Gagauzia and Balti."
The Moldovan
government has already given the opposition a powerful potential weapon for
such protests by deciding to open just five polling stations in Russia for the
election, although about 1 million Moldovan citizens are living there. Russian
media have already been accusing the government of doing so in order to
"ensure a relatively legitimate means of falsification."
"The only one
who is interested in destabilizing Moldova
is, undoubtedly, Russia ,"
Vladimir Socor, an analyst with the Washington-based Jamestown Foundation,
says. "A Moldovan pseudo-Maidan would play very much into Russia 's
hands."
The November 30
elections are a stern test for Moldova 's
pro-European ruling coalition, a vote that could determine the country's
geopolitical trajectory for the foreseeable future.
"If before
everyone thought it was possible to adapt and find a stable balance between
East and West, now, I think, voters really must make a choice between East and
West," says former Romanian Foreign Minister Teodor Baconschi.
"This is
because the 'reset' in relations between Washington
and Moscow was not successful and because there
are processes going on in the region that no one would like to see repeated in Moldova . So it
is not a choice of the 'lesser evil,' as is so often the case in democratic
countries -- but is a choice of direction for the long-term future,"
Baconschi adds.
What The Polls Say
It is impossible to
tell from the opinion polls what kind of ruling coalition might emerge from the
elections. The pro-European Liberal Democratic Party and the Moscow-leaning
Communist Party are leading with about 21 percent each. They are followed by
the Democratic Party at 18 percent, and the Liberal Party and the Socialist
Party at about 10 percent each.
The pro-Russian
Patria party had polled about 12 percent. A party must receive 6 percent of the
vote to enter parliament.
Collectively, the
parties of the current pro-European ruling coalition -- together with the
Liberal Party, which withdrew from the coalition in February 2013 but supports
the country's European ambitions -- have about 49 percent, according to the
polls.
The solidly
pro-customs union Socialist Party, together with the now-disqualified Patria,
had polled about 22 percent. The Communist Party, which has traditionally
been pro-Moscow but is currently divided and weakened, is polling 21 percent.
It is unclear
whether the Communists would be willing to form a coalition with any of the
other parties, particularly since the Socialist Party is headed by Igor Dodon,
who split from the Communists in 2011. In fact, there has been speculation the
Communists might find it easier to ally with the Democratic Party of former
parliament speaker Marian Lupu.
Although there are
many parties on the ballot, the choice really comes down to one between further
European integration or a turn to the East and closer ties with the Russian-led
customs union.
"It is a
decisive election for the future of Moldova , absolutely and
unquestionably," analyst Socor says. "For the first time in its 23
years of independence, Moldova
has the opportunity to finally tear itself away from Russia and decisively and
irreversibly turn in the direction of the West."
Paris-based analyst
Nicu Popescu, however, notes that it is just as likely that the election
returns -- and the resulting policy -- could remain muddled.
Rather than a stark
East-West choice, he sees a choice between "rapid Europeanization"
under a pro-European government or a return to "multivectoral
politics," in which Chisinau tries to steer a middle course between Russia and Europe .
Moldova
pursued such a policy under former Communist President Vladimir Voronin prior
to 2009.
Since 2009, Moldova
has been headed by coalitions of pro-European parties. The government has achieved
some remarkable successes in the framework of the European Union's Eastern
Partnership program. Most notably, it has signed an Association Agreement with
the EU and has achieved a visa-free travel regime with the bloc. The EU is Moldova 's largest trading partner (45 percent),
followed by Russia
at 25 percent.
But the government
suffers from the perception of widespread and unaddressed corruption. Many
Moldovans feel their hopes of 2009 have been disappointed.
At the same time,
the government's European-integration successes have raised Russia 's
hackles. Moscow has said it views any alteration
in Moldova 's
neutral status as unacceptable.
Russian President
Vladimir Putin held a high-visibility meeting earlier this month with Socialist
Party head Dodon. The party's billboards show photos of that meeting and bear
the slogan "Together with Russia ."
"It is
noticeable how Russia
is trying to exert pressure, including by playing the card of Moldovan migrant
workers and threatening to expel them," Elmar Brok, head of the European
Parliament's Committee on Foreign Affairs, says. "Interfering in Moldovan
politics is another method by which Russia
-- as it did in the case of Ukraine
-- is trying to prevent Moldova
from independently making the decision to follow a European path."
The Controversy
Around Patria
The newcomer on Moldova 's
political stage is the pro-Russian Patria party, headed by 36-year-old
businessman Usatii. The party was registered only in September, and it has been
accused of being a "Russian project" since the beginning.
Usatii made his
fortune in Russia and
returned to Moldova
in April. He has been running a well-funded campaign that is tightly focused on
the topic of corruption.
"The first job
to do," Usatii told journalists in September, "we will jail the oligarchs
and the first such jailbird will be Mr. Filat [former prime minister and head
of the Liberal Democratic Party]. I am announcing for everybody to hear -- upon
our coming to parliament, Filat will cease being a cover for oligarchs."
Usatii has received
considerable support from the Russian state media that still dominates Moldova 's
airwaves. Russian crooner and State Duma Deputy Iosif Kobzon has held concerts
to support him.
He has said the
policy of EU integration is a "Trojan horse" aimed at ultimately
uniting Moldova with Romania .
But Moscow 's tough policies on Moldova
in the past and the ongoing conflict in neighboring Ukraine
have left many Moldovans wary of Russia . The Socialist Party's
openly pro-Moscow position has failed to attract a large part of the Communist
Party's traditional base. Although the Patria party favors the Kremlin's
customs union, it campaigns largely on the populist corruption issue and tries
to avoid being pegged as pro-Russian.
For now, however, Moldova 's fate
is in the hands of voters, who have traditionally been overlooked in the
country's politics, says Moldova Foundation head Vlad Spanu.
"In Moldova , the
voter is a little pawn who is only used during election campaigns," Spanu
says. "He is often deceived, tricked by various concerts, bought with bags
of groceries, and then they forget about him for four years until once again
the need for his vote arises."
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