September 2014 — US

Two Russian strategic bombers carried out simulated cruise missile strikes against the US during a NATO summit in Wales. The Tu-95s flew to an optimum site for launching the missiles in Canada's north east. US fighters were not scrambled to respond to the threat, as the Russian aircraft stayed out of the North American Air Defense Identification Zone.

Violation of Swedish airspace

INCIDENT: Two Russian military aircraft cross into Swedish air-space south of the island of Oland.

CATEGORY: Serious. Su-24 bombers intentionally violated Swedish airspace. Swedish Foreign Minister described it as 'most serious aerial incursion' in years.

Abduction of an Estonian security service operative

INCIDENT: Estonian security service operative captured by Russian agents on Estonian territory in a raid involving communications jamming and smoke grenades. Incident took place immediately after Obama’s assurances to the Baltic States.

CATEGORY: High Risk. Incursion into NATO member state’s territory. Had the Estonian official or his colleagues resisted, fatalities on either side would have been a catalyst for further escalation.